Saturday, February 21, 2015

Blind leading the 20/20


My friend's daughter doing her Ph. D in Down Under asked me to advise her on software to use for Input-Output analysis. Sometime before, I was lucky to have looked for such software here in Myanmar at the request of my younger friends from the academia. With 0% of I-O analysis knowledge and less than 1% of knowledge for the R statistical environment I found out about the rwiot software package developed by UNIDO, thanks to Google. It was destined for the main repository of R: cran or the comprehensive R archive network. But it wasn't available on cran that time, and still not yet available on it. However, the developers directed me to the download site and anyone can download the two packages, rwiot and rwiotData, as Windows binaries, from the following links:


So I immediately replied to her about rwiot. Afterwards I noticed that, in a hurry, I missed the point that she was thinking about doing the I-O analysis via the GEMPACK software. I looked it up and found that it is for making general equilibrium economic analysis.

With a slant for R, I looked up for general equilibrium modeling in R and I was led to the gEcon package: http://gecon.r-forge.r-project.org/ and its description reads:

About gEcon

gEcon is a framework for developing and solving large scale dynamic (stochastic) & static general equilibrium models. It consists of model description language and an interface with a set of solvers in R. It was developed at the Department for Strategic Analyses at the Chancellery of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland as a part of a project aiming at construction of large scale DSGE & CGE models of the Polish economy.

Publicly available toolboxes used in RBC/DSGE modelling require users to derive the first order conditions (FOCs) and linearisation equations by pen & paper (e.g. Uhlig’s tool-kit) or at least require manual derivation of the FOCs (e.g. Dynare). Derivation of FOCs is also required by GAMS and GEMPACK — probably the two most popular frameworks used in CGE modelling. Owing to the development of an algorithm for automatic derivation of first order conditions and implementation of a comprehensive symbolic library, gEcon allows users to describe their models in terms of optimisation problems of agents. To authors' best knowledge there is no other publicly available framework for writing and solving DSGE & CGE models in this natural way. Writing models in terms of optimisation problems instead of the FOCs is far more natural to an economist, takes off the burden of tedious differentiation, and reduces the risk of making a mistake. gEcon allows users to focus on economic aspects of the model and makes it possible to design large-scale (100+ variables) models. To this end, gEcon provides template mechanism (similar to those found in CGE modelling packages), which allows to declare similar agents (differentiated by parameters only) in a single block. Additionally, gEcon can automatically produce a draft of LaTeX documentation for a model.

The model description language is simple and intuitive. Given optimisation problems, constraints and identities, computer derives the FOCs, steady state equations, and linearisation matrices automatically. Numerical solvers can be then employed to determine the steady state and approximate equilibrium laws of motion around it.


If gEcon has capability comparable to GEMPACK I felt it would be good to select the gEcon (i) as GEMPACK is not free, and (ii) even in case that funds are available for it from the university. Notwithstanding my zero knowledge of general equilibrium modeling, I am certainly impressed with gEcon when the introduction says:

To authors' best knowledge there is no other publicly available framework for writing and solving DSGE & CGE models in this natural way. Writing models in terms of optimisation problems instead of the FOCs is far more natural to an economist, takes off the burden of tedious differentiation, and reduces the risk of making a mistake. gEcon allows users to focus on economic aspects of the model and makes it possible to design large-scale (100+ variables) models.

So by choosing gEcon, when she comes back to her own country she could freely share the gEcon software as well as her knowledge with the local researchers as much as she would like.

The difference between GEMPACK and gEcon, I guess, will be that the former would be a stand-alone package (?) while the latter runs on R. That means she would need to learn the basics of R before she could use gEcon. However, that shouldn't be too difficult. I think her university would have some course on R so she could have started running gEcon in no time, or she could try any number of tutorials available on the Web. Anyway, she and her supervisors will be ones to decide if that would be GEMPACK or any available alternative they would actually use.

On the other hand, I guess that the establishment and the academia are basically suspicious of free and open source software, for example, and have a general distrust of something that is free—in the sense that it must somehow be inferior, seen in such examples as Wikipedia vs. Britannica, crowd vs. experts, collaborative vs. hierarchical and so on.

One difference is that gEcon is hardly anything of some free-wheeling software. It is a tool developed specifically for use by the Polish government and so it is worthy of being taken seriously by anyone. Therefore I should be more than happy if this message got through to any interested Myanmar researcher.




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